{
  "slug": "umsatzprognose-schema",
  "category": "skill",
  "name": "The Revenue Forecast Framework",
  "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
  "typTags": [
    "datenbezogen",
    "analytisch"
  ],
  "teaser": "Analyzes your pipeline and historical sales data and delivers a revenue forecast with a best, base and worst case, transparent assumptions, and prioritized recommendations.",
  "hat": {
    "schritte": true,
    "beispiel_szenario": true,
    "ausgabebeispiel": false,
    "konfiguration": false,
    "betrieb": false,
    "arbeitsprompts": false,
    "einrichtung": true,
    "umsetzung": true,
    "export": false,
    "staerken": false,
    "ki_funktionen": false,
    "einschraenkungen": false,
    "weniger_geeignet_fuer": false
  },
  "sections": [
    {
      "id": "description",
      "title": "Description",
      "html": "<p>Reliable revenue forecasts are the foundation of good business decisions, but manual forecasting costs time and is prone to error. This skill analyzes the pipeline, historical patterns and available additional data, and condenses them into a structured forecast with a best, base and worst case.</p>\n<p>The difference from a plain column of numbers: each scenario receives its own openly stated assumptions instead of a suggested false precision. The skill works with detailed CRM exports as well as a simple bullet list of the current pipeline, with more data making the forecast correspondingly more precise. It is built for sales leaders, account executives and management who need a solid basis for quarterly or annual forecasts, for example for management reporting or their own capacity planning.</p>\n<p>What the skill deliberately cannot do: research missing pipeline data or replace a CRM. It evaluates what you give it, flags gaps instead of filling them, and treats every figure as an estimate, not a guarantee.</p>\n"
    },
    {
      "id": "skill-text",
      "title": "Skill Text",
      "html": "<p>Copy the prompt below in full into your AI tool. As a file: <a href=\"/ai-library/umsatzprognose-schema.en.json\">umsatzprognose-schema.en.json</a></p>\n"
    }
  ],
  "schritte": [
    {
      "nr": 1,
      "titel": "Submit pipeline and data",
      "beschreibung": "The current pipeline with status and value per deal, the forecast period, and, where available, historical revenue data are provided.",
      "rolle": "mensch"
    },
    {
      "nr": 2,
      "titel": "Analyze the data",
      "beschreibung": "The sales and pipeline data are structured, data gaps are flagged, and historical conversion rates per pipeline stage are calculated.",
      "rolle": "automatisch"
    },
    {
      "nr": 3,
      "titel": "Assess the pipeline and model scenarios",
      "beschreibung": "Each deal is assessed individually, the weighted pipeline value is calculated, and a best, base and worst case are built with concrete figures.",
      "rolle": "automatisch"
    },
    {
      "nr": 4,
      "titel": "Derive recommendations",
      "beschreibung": "A maximum of five prioritized actions with expected impact are derived.",
      "rolle": "automatisch"
    },
    {
      "nr": 5,
      "titel": "Quality check",
      "beschreibung": "The forecast is checked against the definition of done before it is output.",
      "rolle": "automatisch"
    },
    {
      "nr": 6,
      "titel": "Finished forecast report",
      "beschreibung": "An executive summary, the three scenarios, the top deals, and risks, opportunities and recommendations are ready.",
      "rolle": "ergebnis"
    }
  ],
  "herausgeber": "Voyage Digital",
  "version": "2.0",
  "stand": "2026-07-26",
  "umsetzung": [
    {
      "titel": "Export the pipeline",
      "text": "CRM data is exported, or a simple overview of the current pipeline is put together."
    },
    {
      "titel": "Set up the skill",
      "text": "The skill text is copied and the placeholders are filled in, for example currency, fiscal year and sales stages."
    },
    {
      "titel": "Create the first forecast",
      "text": "The current quarter works best for the first run."
    },
    {
      "titel": "Validate the result",
      "text": "The assumptions are checked against actual experience."
    },
    {
      "titel": "Repeat regularly",
      "text": "A weekly or monthly forecast rhythm keeps the projection current."
    }
  ],
  "zutaten": [
    "Deals",
    "Status",
    "Value",
    "Forecast period",
    "Revenue data"
  ],
  "beispielSzenario": "At the start of a quarter, management needs a reliable Q2 forecast. The pipeline holds 15 deals with different close probabilities, plus historical data from the last four quarters. The skill condenses all of this into three scenarios with concrete figures, names the deals that matter most, and shows where the leverage is best applied.",
  "eingaben": [
    {
      "feld": "Current pipeline: deals with status and estimated value",
      "pflicht": true
    },
    {
      "feld": "Forecast period, for example month, quarter, year",
      "pflicht": true
    },
    {
      "feld": "Historical revenue data from the last four to twelve months",
      "pflicht": false
    },
    {
      "feld": "Close probabilities per deal",
      "pflicht": false
    },
    {
      "feld": "Seasonal patterns or known influences",
      "pflicht": false
    },
    {
      "feld": "Sales targets or quota",
      "pflicht": false
    },
    {
      "feld": "Planned sales activities, for example campaigns, events",
      "pflicht": false
    }
  ],
  "ausgabe": "An executive summary with a headline forecast and confidence level, a pipeline analysis with a weighted value, three scenarios with concrete figures and transparent assumptions, an overview of the deals with the greatest impact on the outcome, prioritized recommendations, and, where data is available, a comparison with the previous period.",
  "prompt": "# DESCRIPTION\nYou analyze the current pipeline, historical sales patterns and available additional data, and turn them into a structured revenue forecast with a best, base and worst case. Each scenario receives concrete figures and clearly disclosed assumptions. Address the user in a professional manner throughout the dialogue.\n\n# INPUT\n- Current pipeline: deals with status and estimated value (required)\n- Forecast period, for example month, quarter, year (required)\n- Historical revenue data from the last four to twelve months (optional)\n- Close probabilities per deal (optional)\n- Seasonal patterns or known influences (optional)\n- Sales targets or quota (optional)\n- Planned sales activities, for example campaigns, events (optional)\n\n# OUTPUT\n- Format: forecast report\n- Structure:\n  1. Executive summary: headline forecast and confidence level\n  2. Pipeline analysis: status, value and probabilities per deal\n  3. Three scenarios: best, base and worst case with concrete figures\n  4. Transparent assumptions per scenario\n  5. Risks and opportunities\n  6. Top deals with the greatest impact on the outcome\n  7. Prioritized recommendations\n  8. Comparison with the previous period, where data is available\n\n# CONTEXT\n- Global placeholders: COMPANY, INDUSTRY, TARGET AUDIENCE\n- Skill-specific: currency, fiscal year, sales stages, pricing model\n- Domain knowledge: sales forecasting, pipeline management, statistical fundamentals\n- Constraint: forecasts are estimates, not guarantees. Mark them as such in every case. Where facts or data are missing, explicitly flag the affected assumption as an assumption rather than presenting it as established.\n\n# INSTRUCTIONS\n\n## Step 1: Analyze the data\nStructure all available sales and pipeline data and check it for completeness.\n- Rule: name data gaps explicitly, do not fill them in silently\n- Rule: calculate historical patterns and conversion rates per pipeline stage, where data is available\n\n## Step 2: Assess the pipeline\nAssess each deal individually: close probability, expected value, timeline.\n- Rule: calculate the weighted pipeline value\n- Rule: list the top deals with the greatest impact separately\n\n## Step 3: Model the scenarios\nBuild three scenarios with different assumptions.\n- Best case: upper realistic bound\n- Base case: most likely outcome\n- Worst case: lower bound\n- Rule: give each scenario concrete figures and openly disclosed assumptions\n\n## Step 4: Derive recommendations\nPropose a maximum of five prioritized actions to reach the base or best case.\n- Rule: give each recommendation an expected impact\n- Rule: focus on factors that are actually within your control\n\n## Step 5: Quality check\nCheck the forecast against the definition of done before you output it.\n\n# DEFINITION OF DONE\n[ ] Executive summary with a headline figure and confidence level\n[ ] Pipeline analysis with a weighted value\n[ ] Three scenarios with concrete figures\n[ ] Assumptions per scenario transparently documented\n[ ] Top three to five deals with the greatest impact identified\n[ ] At least three concrete recommendations\n[ ] Risks and opportunities named\n[ ] Data gaps explicitly flagged\n[ ] Forecasts explicitly marked as estimates\n\n# CONVERSATION START\nHello, let's build your revenue forecast. Please provide me with:\n1. Pipeline overview: which deals do you currently have, with name, value and status or stage\n2. Forecast period: for which period, for example month, quarter, year\n3. Optional: historical revenue from recent months or quarters\n4. Optional: revenue target or quota\nI will use this to build you a forecast with three scenarios, the deals that matter most, and concrete recommendations.",
  "einrichtung": {
    "intro": "Step-by-step guides for ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot Studio and Langdock.",
    "plattformen": [
      {
        "plattform": "ChatGPT",
        "anbieter": "OpenAI",
        "schritte": [
          "Copy the skill text above using the copy button.",
          "Click your profile picture and select \"Skills\".",
          "Click \"Create skill\" and paste the copied text as the instruction.",
          "Adjust inputs, outputs and format where your case requires it.",
          "Save the skill. It is available in all chats from that point on."
        ],
        "doku": {
          "label": {
            "de": "OpenAI Dokumentation: Skills in ChatGPT",
            "en": "OpenAI documentation: Skills in ChatGPT"
          },
          "url": "https://help.openai.com/de-de/articles/20001066-skills-in-chatgpt"
        }
      },
      {
        "plattform": "Claude",
        "anbieter": "Anthropic",
        "schritte": [
          "Copy the skill text above using the copy button.",
          "Open claude.ai and go to \"Skills\" in your profile.",
          "Create a new skill and paste the copied text as the instruction.",
          "The skill works in claude.ai, in Claude Code and through the API.",
          "Available on the Pro, Max, Team and Enterprise plans."
        ],
        "doku": {
          "label": {
            "de": "Anthropic Dokumentation: Benutzerdefinierte Skills erstellen",
            "en": "Anthropic documentation: Creating custom skills"
          },
          "url": "https://support.claude.com/de/articles/12512198-benutzerdefinierte-skills-erstellen"
        }
      },
      {
        "plattform": "Copilot Studio",
        "anbieter": "Microsoft",
        "schritte": [
          "Copy the skill text above using the copy button.",
          "Open Copilot Studio and create a new agent.",
          "Paste the copied text as the instruction.",
          "Connect knowledge sources and tools where needed.",
          "Publish the agent for yourself or for your organisation."
        ],
        "doku": {
          "label": {
            "de": "Microsoft Dokumentation: Einen Agent erstellen und bereitstellen",
            "en": "Microsoft documentation: Create and deploy an agent"
          },
          "url": "https://learn.microsoft.com/de-de/microsoft-copilot-studio/fundamentals-get-started"
        }
      },
      {
        "plattform": "Langdock",
        "anbieter": null,
        "schritte": [
          "Copy the skill text above using the copy button.",
          "Open the sidebar and click \"Add skill\".",
          "Paste the copied text directly as the instruction.",
          "Connect the skill to integrations such as Gmail or Slack where needed.",
          "Save the skill and release it for yourself or your team."
        ],
        "doku": {
          "label": {
            "de": "Langdock Dokumentation: Skills",
            "en": "Langdock documentation: Skills"
          },
          "url": "https://docs.langdock.com/de/product/chat/skills"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "itemIcon": "line-chart",
  "recommended": [
    {
      "slug": "budget-rechner",
      "category": "assistent",
      "name": "The Budget Calculator",
      "teaser": "The Budget Calculator compares planned and actual budgets, ranks the largest variances by cause, and turns them into quantified savings recommendations with a forecast for the next period.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "itemIcon": "wallet"
    },
    {
      "slug": "kennzahlen-analyst",
      "category": "assistent",
      "name": "The Metrics Analyst",
      "teaser": "Takes an Excel or CSV file of performance data, analyzes it with statistical methods, and turns the result into clear visualizations and an impact-ranked list of possible actions.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "itemIcon": "bar-chart-3"
    },
    {
      "slug": "szenario-rechner",
      "category": "assistent",
      "name": "The Scenario Planner",
      "teaser": "Builds a best case, base case and worst case model from historical financial data, with documented assumptions, sensitivity analysis and prioritized recommendations.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "itemIcon": "calculator"
    },
    {
      "slug": "google-analytics",
      "category": "tool",
      "name": "Google Analytics",
      "teaser": "Google Analytics is Google's event-based web and app analytics tool (GA4) for evaluating traffic, user behavior, funnels, and campaigns, with a paid enterprise tier, Analytics 360.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "logoFile": "google-analytics.svg",
      "logoEinzug": 1
    },
    {
      "slug": "posthog",
      "category": "tool",
      "name": "PostHog",
      "teaser": "PostHog is a product analytics platform that combines events, feature flags, session replay, experiments and error tracking through a shared event model, priced on usage with a generous free allowance.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "logoFile": "posthog.svg",
      "logoEinzug": 0.78
    },
    {
      "slug": "budget-geruest",
      "category": "skill",
      "name": "The Budget Blueprint",
      "teaser": "Builds a complete budget plan with three scenarios from a time period, a budget range and strategic priorities, not just a cost table.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "itemIcon": "wallet"
    },
    {
      "slug": "rechnungs-strecke",
      "category": "workflow",
      "name": "The Invoice Pipeline",
      "teaser": "A workflow that reads incoming PDF invoices, matches them against purchase orders in the ERP, and books matches automatically while routing discrepancies to the finance team for manual review.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "itemIcon": "receipt"
    },
    {
      "slug": "feedback-sichter",
      "category": "assistent",
      "name": "The Feedback Sifter",
      "teaser": "Sifts through hundreds of customer feedback items from support, surveys and reviews, clusters them by topic with sentiment, and delivers prioritized action recommendations with an impact assessment.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "itemIcon": "message-square-quote"
    },
    {
      "slug": "produktfeedback-analyst",
      "category": "assistent",
      "name": "The Product Feedback Analyst",
      "teaser": "Analyzes scattered customer feedback from reviews, support tickets and surveys, and turns it into a prioritized product action plan.",
      "domaene": "Daten, Analytics & Finanzen",
      "itemIcon": "package-search"
    },
    {
      "slug": "business-case-geruest",
      "category": "skill",
      "name": "The Business Case Builder",
      "teaser": "Turns a project idea, its costs and expected benefits into a complete business case with ROI, payback period, three scenarios and a reasoned go or no-go recommendation.",
      "domaene": "Strategie & Entscheidung",
      "itemIcon": "trending-up"
    }
  ]
}